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ridhima14598 ridhima14598
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5 years ago
Explain whether each of the following variables is a lagging, leading, or coincident indicator: In each case, is the economy likely in a recession, heading for a recession, in an expansion, or heading for an expansion?
 
  a. Industrial production is falling.
  b. The number of building permits issued for new private housing units begins to decline.
  c. The number and amount of commercial and industrial loans start to rise.
  d. The average prime interest rate charged by banks begins to fall.
  e. The M2 money supply begins to rise.

Question 2

Explain how each of the following might make use of the futures market. (a) A lender who is worried that its cost of funds might rise during the term of a loan it has made (b) A speculator who believes strongly that interest rates will rise
 
  What will be an ideal response?
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sosobonsosobon
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5 years ago
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Answer to q. 1

a. Industrial production is a coincident indicator, as it tends to rise and fall at the same time as real GDP and other measures of aggregate economic activity. Since industrial production is falling, the economy is likely in a recession.
b. The number of building permits issued for new private housing units is a leading indicator, as it tends to rise and fall in advance of real GDP and other measures of aggregate economic activity. Since the number of issued permits is beginning to decline, the economy is likely heading for a recession.
c. Commercial and industrial loans are lagging indicators, as they tend to rise and fall after real GDP and other measures of aggregate economic activity. Since these loans are starting to rise, the economy is likely already in an expansion.
d. The average prime interest rate charged by banks is a lagging indicator, as it tends to rise and fall after real GDP and other measures of aggregate economic activity. Since the prime rate is beginning to fall, the economy is likely already in a recession.
e. The M2 money supply is a leading indicator, as it tends to rise and fall in advance of real GDP and other measures of aggregate economic activity. Since M2 is beginning to rise, the economy is likely heading for an expansion.

Answer to q. 2

(a) The lender could hedge the risk by selling futures contracts on Treasury bills.
(b) The speculator could buy futures contracts on Treasury bills.
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ridhima14598 Author
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#2
5 years ago
Tremendous help, I just double-checked it with my friend Smiling Face with Open Mouth
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