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xcluzive xcluzive
wrote...
Posts: 16
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A year ago
3. Question 3 (technical analysis, 1 point).  In technical analysis, there is a pattern called “head and shoulders” (you can search it up online). Suppose it is true that, whenever the pattern occurs, stock prices tend to subsequently crash in a very predictable fashion and produce negative average returns.

Is this consistent with the efficient market hypothesis? If yes, explain
why. If not, explain which of the three forms of efficient market hypothesis is being
violated, and why.
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Anonymous
wrote...
A year ago
No, it is not consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) because the EMH will always discount for all the public information, as well as private information, and one cannot use the technical analysis to make abnormal rate of return in an efficient market. Therefore, it is not consistent with the EMH as it will never help in predicting the price of stock in future.

WEAK FORM OF EFFICIENT MARKET will advocate that all the historical information and past Trends have already been discounted into the market prices and there will be no scope of making of abnormal rate of return on the basis of Technical analysis.

The individual is trying to use technical analysis to make abnormal rate of return which can never be possible in weak form of Efficient market.

Weak form of Efficient market is getting violated.
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