INTRODUCTION TO SOCIOLOGY A Canadian Focus Ninth Edition

Chapter 16 Demography and Urbanization World Population Growth Demography: the study of population; it studies how the size, structure, and rate of growth are affected by fertility, mortality and migration. Crude birth rate: births/year/per 1000 population. Crude death rate: deaths/year/per 1000 population. Rate of natural increase: CBR-CDR. Now in world 14/1000 or 1.4% Higher in Niger and lower in Russia Demographic Transition Theory Based on now developed countries: stages High birth and deaths rates, stable population occurs in pre-industrial times and children are a valuable resource High birth and declining death rates, growing population in early industrial times and children are still a mark of status Low birth and death rates, stable, but large population and children are less valuable (cont’d) Demographic Transition Theory (cont’d) Does birth rate depend on industrialization or could it be changed with contraception? In developing countries, death rates have declined and infants have survived because of public health measures, so population has increased. China, Thailand, and Singapore governments have promoted birth control, and birth rates have declined. Demographic transition theory has limits. Fertility Age-specific fertility rate: births to women of a given age in the population. Can study rate by age Adding rates shows average number of children per lifetime Total fertility rate: children/woman. Period measures: rates at a particular point in time. Cohort measure: rates for those born at the same time, e.g., cohort fertility rate for those born in 2005. Factors Affecting Fertility Fecundity: biological potential to bear children. Fertility: actual childbearing of a woman. Social and biological limits: Late marriage Breastfeeding Contraception Abortion Level of education and income Fertility in Developed Countries Canadian fertility has declined: After WWII a shift to marrying younger 1950-55, rate: 3.72 Now marrying later with later childbirths 1980-85: 1.71 and 2000-05: 1.48 Weakening of link between marriage and childbearing 32% of births to unmarried women Fertility in Developing Societies Great variation (see Fig. 16.1 on the next slide) South Korea: economic growth and fertility decline Thailand: fertility decline, then economic growth China: fertility decline and economic growth Mexico, Peru, and India: moderate fertility decline Islamic countries and Sub-Saharan Africa still have high fertility Where women have some education, there are significantly smaller families. Table 16.1 Mortality Age-specific death rates: deaths to persons of a given age/total deaths in the age cohort. Life table: estimate of years a person of a given age can expect to live. Expectation of life at birth: average number of years newborns can expect to live, if things do not change, e.g., Canada (2000-2005): Male = 76.8 and Female = 81.8. In Sub-Saharan Africa, years are declining because of AIDS epidemic. Mortality Change Earlier mortality rates were high because the high risk of death in infancy. In the last half of the 19th century, rates declined because of better nutrition, public health, and sanitation measures, with economic development. Now mortality rates are declining in poor countries because of public health and medical measures, not because of economic development. Differential Mortality Differences between social groups in Canada: Sex: women outlive men by 5 years Marital status: married live longer Though possibly due to selection Class and ethic variations: People in rich neighbourhoods live longer Non-natives live longer than Natives Migration Migration: movement across boundaries. International: across national boundaries Internal: within a country Canada is a nation of immigrants. Highest number came pre-WWI from Europe and went to the West Now most come from Asia and go to cities, original country loses talent but receives money Almost half of Canadians move during a 5-year period Urbanization In the past city death rates were high, but they grew because of people from the countryside, now they grow with opportunities. Urbanization: the proportion of population in cities. Now 75%+ of Canadians live in cities; Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal have one third of pop. But fastest growth occurs on the fringe. Urbanization in the Developing World Two-thirds of the world’s urban population lives in cities of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. 16 (12 cities in the developing world) cities have over 10 million people. People move for greater opportunities, but have problems of water, sanitation, transportation, etc. Great disparities in income also exist. Table 16.3 Age/Sex Structure Population pyramid: graphic representation of the population at one time. With high fertility the figure looks like a pyramid With low fertility the base narrows Dependency ratio: people less than 15 and 65+/ working-age population (15-64). In Canada the burden is low, but it will grow. Table 16.2 Population in the 21st Century Fertility declines continue, so in the developed world a potential problem of low fertility will be addressed. HIV/AIDS will take a terrific toll. Immigration will be a hot topic. How many and which type of immigrants? Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master subtitle style * * * Chapter 16 Demography and Urbanization World Population Growth Demography: the study of population; it studies how the size, structure, and rate of growth are affected by fertility, mortality and migration. Crude birth rate: births/year/per 1000 population. Crude death rate: deaths/year/per 1000 population. Rate of natural increase: CBR-CDR. Now in world 14/1000 or 1.4% Higher in Niger and lower in Russia Demographic Transition Theory Based on now developed countries: stages High birth and deaths rates, stable population occurs in pre-industrial times and children are a valuable resource High birth and declining death rates, growing population in early industrial times and children are still a mark of status Low birth and death rates, stable, but large population and children are less valuable (cont’d) Demographic Transition Theory (cont’d) Does birth rate depend on industrialization or could it be changed with contraception? In developing countries, death rates have declined and infants have survived because of public health measures, so population has increased. China, Thailand, and Singapore governments have promoted birth control, and birth rates have declined. Demographic transition theory has limits. Fertility Age-specific fertility rate: births to women of a given age in the population. Can study rate by age Adding rates shows average number of children per lifetime Total fertility rate: children/woman. Period measures: rates at a particular point in time. Cohort measure: rates for those born at the same time, e.g., cohort fertility rate for those born in 2005. Factors Affecting Fertility Fecundity: biological potential to bear children. Fertility: actual childbearing of a woman. Social and biological limits: Late marriage Breastfeeding Contraception Abortion Level of education and income Fertility in Developed Countries Canadian fertility has declined: After WWII a shift to marrying younger 1950-55, rate: 3.72 Now marrying later with later childbirths 1980-85: 1.71 and 2000-05: 1.48 Weakening of link between marriage and childbearing 32% of births to unmarried women Fertility in Developing Societies Great variation (see Fig. 16.1 on the next slide) South Korea: economic growth and fertility decline Thailand: fertility decline, then economic growth China: fertility decline and economic growth Mexico, Peru, and India: moderate fertility decline Islamic countries and Sub-Saharan Africa still have high fertility Where women have some education, there are significantly smaller families. Table 16.1 Mortality Age-specific death rates: deaths to persons of a given age/total deaths in the age cohort. Life table: estimate of years a person of a given age can expect to live. Expectation of life at birth: average number of years newborns can expect to live, if things do not change, e.g., Canada (2000-2005): Male = 76.8 and Female = 81.8. In Sub-Saharan Africa, years are declining because of AIDS epidemic. Mortality Change Earlier mortality rates were high because the high risk of death in infancy. In the last half of the 19th century, rates declined because of better nutrition, public health, and sanitation measures, with economic development. Now mortality rates are declining in poor countries because of public health and medical measures, not because of economic development. Differential Mortality Differences between social groups in Canada: Sex: women outlive men by 5 years Marital status: married live longer Though possibly due to selection Class and ethic variations: People in rich neighbourhoods live longer Non-natives live longer than Natives Migration Migration: movement across boundaries. International: across national boundaries Internal: within a country Canada is a nation of immigrants. Highest number came pre-WWI from Europe and went to the West Now most come from Asia and go to cities, original country loses talent but receives money Almost half of Canadians move during a 5-year period Urbanization In the past city death rates were high, but they grew because of people from the countryside, now they grow with opportunities. Urbanization: the proportion of population in cities. Now 75%+ of Canadians live in cities; Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal have one third of pop. But fastest growth occurs on the fringe. Urbanization in the Developing World Two-thirds of the world’s urban population lives in cities of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. 16 (12 cities in the developing world) cities have over 10 million people. People move for greater opportunities, but have problems of water, sanitation, transportation, etc. Great disparities in income also exist. Table 16.3 Age/Sex Structure Population pyramid: graphic representation of the population at one time. With high fertility the figure looks like a pyramid With low fertility the base narrows Dependency ratio: people less than 15 and 65+/ working-age population (15-64). In Canada the burden is low, but it will grow. Table 16.2 Population in the 21st Century Fertility declines continue, so in the developed world a potential problem of low fertility will be addressed. HIV/AIDS will take a terrific toll. Immigration will be a hot topic. How many and which type of immigrants?