Transcript
CHAPTER 6:
Understanding Interest Rates:
Determinants and Movements
FOCUS OF THE CHAPTER
This chapter describes how the loanable funds approach and the liquidity preference approach explain the determination of interest rate levels and their movements. The loanable funds approach is applied to analyze and explain the pro-cyclical behaviour of interest rates, and the co-movement of inflation and interest rates (Fisher Effect). The impact of expansionary and contractionary monetary policies on the interest rates is analyzed using the liquidity preference approach.
Learning Objectives:
Identify how individuals determine an equilibrium in their money holdings
Explain how the loanable funds model suggests interest rate determination
List the factors that cause interest rates to change
Describe how the liquidity preference approach explains equilibrium interest rate determination
Determine how monetary policy affects interest rates
SECTION SUMMARIES
The Loanable Funds Approach
Loanable funds are funds available for new investments. Loanable funds are traded in the form of bonds. The suppliers of loanable funds (lenders) are the demanders of bonds, and the demanders of loanable funds (borrowers) are the suppliers of bonds. According to this approach, the interest rate is determined by the demand for bonds (supply of loanable funds) and the supply of bonds (demand for loanable funds) in the bond market.
Bond Demand and Supply: The rate of interest is the price of loanable funds. The price of bonds and the rate of interest are negatively (inversely) related. Other things being equal, the rate of interest and the quantity demanded of loanable funds are negatively related, and the quantity of loanable funds supplied and the rate of interest are positively related. Therefore, the demand curve for loanable funds is downward-sloping, and the supply curve for loanable funds is upward-sloping.
Market Equilibrium: The intersection of the demand and supply curves determines the equilibrium rate of interest, the rate at which the bond market is in equilibrium. At interest rates higher than the equilibrium rate, an excess supply of loanable funds (excess
demand for bonds) exists. At interest rates lower than the equilibrium rate, an excess demand for loanable funds (excess supply of bonds) exists. The excess supply of (demand for) loanable funds forces the interest rate down (up).
Shifts in the Demand for Loanable Funds: In addition to the rate of interest, the demand for loanable funds depends on the rate of return anticipated on investments, government policies (budget deficits/surpluses), and inflation expectations. Increases in budget deficit (decreases in budget surplus), the rate of return anticipated on investments, and the expected rate of inflation cause increases in the demand for loanable funds (i.e., an upward/rightward shift in the demand for loanable funds curve).
Shifts in the Supply of Loanable Funds: In addition to the rate of interest, the supply of loanable funds depends on the level of wealth, relative returns (returns on bonds relative to returns on other assets), relative riskiness, the level of liquidity, and expected inflation. Increases in the level of wealth, relative returns, the level of liquidity, and decreases in relative riskiness and expected inflation cause increases in the supply of loanable funds (i.e., rightward/downward shifts in the supply of loanable funds curve).
Equilibrium Interest Rate Changes:
Fisher Effect: Interest rates and inflation move together. An increase in expected inflation lowers the real interest rate (the real cost of borrowing to the borrower/real rate of return to the lender) at any given nominal rate of interest and, therefore, increases the demand for loanable funds and decreases the supply of loanable funds. Both the demand and supply curves shift upward (the size of the shifts is equal), causing the equilibrium nominal rate of interest to rise by the size of the increase in expected inflation. The nominal equilibrium interest rate increases, but the real interest rate remains the same. Thus, inflationary expectations cause the nominal rate of interest to rise.
Interest Rates and the Business Cycle: Interest rate movements are procyclical, i.e., interest rates tend to increase in periods of economic expansion and decrease in periods of recession. In a phase of economic expansion, both the demand for and supply of loanable funds increase, causing rightward shifts in both demand and supply curves. However, the increase in demand tends to be greater than the increase in supply and, therefore, the equilibrium rate of interest tends to increase.
The Liquidity Preference Approach
Liquidity preference is the demand for money. According to the liquidity preference approach, the interest rate is determined in the money market (but not in the bond market), by the demand for and supply of money. All financial assets can be classified as two broad assets, money (M) and bonds (B). The money and bond markets are related in such a way that, when the money market is in equilibrium, so is the bond market. When there is an excess demand (supply) in the money market, there is an excess supply (demand) in the bond market.
The Demand for Money: The transactions, precautionary, and speculative motives are the three motives behind the demand for money and, therefore, the demand for money is derived by summing the transactions, precautionary, and speculative (asset) demands for money. The nominal level of income, price level, and the interest rate are the main determinants of money demand. Other things being equal, the quantity demanded of money is related positively to the nominal income level and to the price level and negatively to the interest rate (the cost of holding money). The demand curve for money is downward-sloping, since the quantity of money demanded and the rate of interest are inversely related.
The Supply of Money: Conventionally, the money supply is assumed to be determined by the central bank and not to be responsive to changes in the interest rate. Therefore, the supply curve for money is vertical (i.e., perfectly inelastic with respect to the rate of interest). The supply curve shows the relationship between the quantity of money supplied and the interest rate, under the assumption that other things are equal (ceteris paribus). The conventional view ignores the role played by the public and financial institutions, such as banks, in the money supply. The higher the interest rate, the higher the cost of holding money. Therefore, the public and the banks increase their loans by minimizing cash holdings, and reserve holdings, respectively. This results in a positive relationship between the interest rate and the quantity of money supplied, i.e., an upward- sloping supply curve.
Equilibrium in the Money Market: The equilibrium interest rate is the interest rate at which the supply and demand curves for money intersect. At an interest rate higher (lower) than the equilibrium rate of interest, the money market has an excess supply (excess demand), while the bond market has an excess demand (excess supply). An excess supply (demand) in the money market forces the interest rate down (up) towards the equilibrium interest rate.
Monetary Policy and Interest Rates: The impact of monetary policy on the equilibrium interest rate can be explained using the liquidity preference approach. The central bank's (Bank of Canada's) policies to change the money supply, in general, are referred to as monetary policy. A policy to increase the money supply (expansionary monetary policy) shifts the money supply curve rightward, causing a decrease in the equilibrium rate of interest. Conversely, a policy to decrease the money supply (contractionary monetary policy) shifts the money supply curve leftward, causing an increase in the equilibrium rate of interest. Thus, there typically is an inverse relationship between money growth and the equilibrium rate of interest. However, growth of the money supply generates two opposing effects on the interest rate, namely the liquidity effect and the income effect. As long as the liquidity effect dominates, an inverse relationship between the money growth and the equilibrium interest rate is maintained. If the income effect dominates, the relationship may be positive.
The Liquidity Trap: The liquidity trap refers to the inability of additional injections of liquidity (increases in money supply) into the economy to reduce interest rates. This is a situation which occurs at extremely low interest rates, and where there is no liquidity effect whatsoever.
MULTIPLE-CHOICE QUESTIONS
1. According to the loanable funds approach, the nominal interest rate is determined in
a) the money market.
b) the equity market.
c) the stock market.
d) the bond market.
2. The price of a bond and the nominal rate of interest are
a) the same.
b) positively related.
c) negatively related.
d) not related to each other.
3. According to the loanable funds approach, an excess demand for bonds exists when
a) interest rates are higher than the equilibrium interest rate.
b) interest rates are lower than the equilibrium interest rate.
c) the equilibrium interest rate is achieved.
d) bond prices are higher than the equilibrium price.
4. Which of the following would cause a decrease in the equilibrium rate of interest?
a) An increase in wealth
b) A decrease in the budget surplus
c) An increase in the expected rate of inflation
d) An increase in the relative riskiness of holding bonds
5. "The nominal interest rate and inflation tend to move together." This is a statement of
a) the interest rate effect.
b) the Fisher Effect.
c) the substitution effect.
d) the multiplier effect.
6. In general, the nominal interest rate tends to
a) increase in periods of recession and decrease in periods of economic expansion.
b) increase in both periods of recession and expansion.
c) decrease in periods of recession and increase in periods of economic expansion.
d) remain constant in periods of recession and decrease in periods of economic expansion.
7. The liquidity preference approach suggests that the interest rate is determined
a) by the central bank.
b) by the demand for and supply of bonds.
c) in the money market.
d) in the capital market.
8. The demand for money is the sum of
a) transactions, precautionary, and speculative demands.
b) transactions, speculative, and asset demands.
c) transactions and speculative demands.
d) precautionary and speculative demands.
9. An increase in the level of income
a) shifts the demand for money curve rightward.
b) shifts the demand for money curve leftward.
c) leads to a decrease in the equilibrium rate of interest.
d) does not affect the equilibrium rate of interest.
10. A contractionary monetary policy
a) increases the equilibrium rate of interest.
b) decreases the equilibrium rate of interest.
c) increases the money supply.
d) does not affect the equilibrium rate of interest.
11. If wealth remains constant, an excess demand for money
a) implies an excess demand for bonds.
b) implies an excess supply of bonds.
c) could imply either an excess supply or an excess demand for bonds.
d) could imply neither an excess supply nor an excess demand for bonds.
12. A speculative demand for money arises because
a) its value relative to the price of bonds or stacks could rise.
a) its value relative to the price of bonds or stacks could fall.
a) its value relative to the price of goods could fall.
a) interest rates could fall.
PROBLEMS
1. Explain what would be the likely effects of the following events on the equilibrium nominal rate of interest, using the loanable funds approach.
a) a decrease in the budget deficit
b) an increase in the level of wealth
c) a decrease in the expected return on business investments
2. Using the loanable funds approach, explain how interest rates change in the recessionary phase of a business cycle.
3. Within the framework of the liquidity preference approach, explain the effect of an increase in the level of nominal income on the equilibrium interest rate.
4. Analyze the possible impact of a purchase of government bonds by the Bank of Canada on the rate of interest using
a) the loanable funds approach.
b) the liquidity preference approach.
5. Explain what is meant be the income and liquidity effects of money supply growth.
ANSWER SECTION
Answers to multiple-choice questions:
1. d (see page 94)
2. c (see page 95)
3. a (see page 97)
4. a (see page 98, 99)
5. b (see pages 99, 113)
6. c (see pages 99)
7. c (see page 103)
8. a (see pages 104,105)
9. a (see page 107)
10. a (see page 108)
11. b (see page 104)
12. a (see page 105)
Answers to problems:
1. a) The budget deficit is a determinant of the demand for loanable funds. A decrease in the budget deficit would decrease the demand for loanable funds. Therefore, the equilibrium nominal interest rate likely would decrease.
b) The level of wealth affects the supply of loanable funds. An increase in the level of wealth would increase the supply of loanable funds. Therefore, the equilibrium nominal interest rate likely would fall.
c) The expected return on business investments is a determinant of the demand for loanable funds. A decrease in the expected returns on business investment would decrease the demand for loanable funds. This would likely result in a decrease in the equilibrium nominal interest rate.
2. The empirical data indicate that interest rates tend to decrease in recessions and increase in expansions. In a recession, the demand for loanable funds decreases as the expected return on investments decreases. A decline in the level of income, increased risk, and a decline in bond liquidity are likely to decrease the supply of loanable funds as well. In general, the decrease in the demand for loanable funds tends to be larger than the decrease in the supply of loanable funds in a recession. The net result of these changes in supply and demand would be a decrease in the equilibrium interest rate.
3. The demand curve for money is derived under the assumption that the nominal level of income and the price level are constant. An increase in the level of nominal income increases the transactions and precautionary demands for money and thereby increases the demand for money. The increase in the demand for money shifts the demand curve for money upward. As a result, the equilibrium rate of interest increases.
4. a) The purchase of bonds by the Bank of Canada increases the demand for bonds or the supply of loanable funds. The increase in the supply of loanable funds shifts the supply curve for loanable funds rightward/upward, while the demand curve for money remains the same. As a result, the equilibrium interest rate decreases.
b) The purchase of government bonds by the central bank is a tool of monetary policy known as open market operations. The purchase of government bonds constitutes an expansionary monetary policy, which brings about a decrease in the money supply. The decrease in money supply shifts the supply curve for money leftward/upward, while the demand for money curve is unaffected. As a result, the equilibrium interest rate in the money market decreases.
5. Following an increase in the supply of money, interest rates fall. That is a liquidity effect. To the extent that a fall in interest stimulates economic activity and therefore income rises, money demand rises creating an income effect as interest rates rise. The net impact of monetary policy depends on the net effect of the liquidity and income effects.
