Transcript
Decision Support and Business Intelligence Systems
Decision Making, Systems, Modeling, and Support
1) When trying to solve a problem, developers at the manufacturer HP consider the three phases in developing a
model. Their first phase is problem analytics.
Answer: FALSE
2) If a problem arises due to misalignment of incentives or unclear lines of authority or plans, then no model can help solve that root problem.
Answer: TRUE
3) When developers design and develop tools, the first guideline is to develop a prototype to test the designs and get early feedback from the end users to see what works for them and what needs to be changed.
Answer: TRUE
4) It is important to remove unneeded complexity from a model before handoff because as a tool becomes more complex it requires more automation.
Answer: FALSE
5) Groupthink among decision makers can help lead to the best decisions.
Answer: FALSE
6) Experimentation with a real system is possible only for one set of conditions at a time and can be disastrous.
Answer: TRUE
7) Collecting information and analyzing a problem are the fastest and least expensive parts of decision-making.
Answer: FALSE
8) Fast decision-making requirements tend to reduce decision quality.
Answer: TRUE
9) According to Simon, managerial decision making is synonymous with managers using decision support systems.
Answer: FALSE
10) Most Web-based DSS are focused on improving decision efficiency.
Answer: FALSE
11) Personality temperament tests are often used to determine decision styles.
Answer: TRUE
12) Problem identification is the conceptualization of a problem in an attempt to place it in a definable category, possibly leading to a standard solution approach.
Answer: FALSE
13) One approach to solving a complex problem is to divide it into simpler subproblems and then solve those subproblems.
Answer: FALSE
14) A problem exists in an organization only if someone or some group takes on the responsibility of attacking it and if the organization has the ability to solve it.
Answer: TRUE
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15) The process of modeling involves determining the (usually mathematical, sometimes symbolic) relationships among the variables.
Answer: TRUE
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16) "Humans are economic beings whose objective is to maximize the attainment of goals" is one of the assumptions of rational decision makers.
Answer: TRUE
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17) The idea of "thinking with your gut" is a heuristic approach to decision making.
Answer: TRUE
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18) Rationality is bounded only by limitations on human processing capacities but not by individual differences.
Answer: FALSE
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19) In general, people have a tendency to measure uncertainty and risk badly; for example, people tend to be overconfident and have an illusion of control in decision making.
Answer: TRUE
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20) Web-based systems have clearly influenced how decision making is supported.
Answer: TRUE
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21) Groupthink tends to ________ the quality of decisions.
A) be detrimental to
B) improve
C) prolong
D) complicate
Answer: A
22) Decision making that involves too much information may lead to a condition known as _______.
A) groupthink
B) information overload
C) experimentation
D) over assumption
Answer: B
23) Decisions are often made by ________, especially at lower managerial levels and in small organizations.
A) groups
B) management teams
C) individuals
D) computerized systems
Answer: C
24) Different decision styles require different types of support. A major factor that determines the type of required support is whether the decision maker is ________.
A) autocratic
B) consultative
C) an individual or a group
D) democratic
Answer: C
25) Which of the following is a physical replica of a system, usually on a different scale from the original?
A) Complex model
B) Iconic model
C) Duplicated model
D) Composite model
Answer: B
26) Which of the following model behaves like the real system but does not look like it?
A) Composite model
B) Analog model
C) Dense model
D) Iconic model
Answer: B
27) There is a continuous flow of activity from one phase to the next phase in a decision making process, but at any phase there may be a return to a previous phase. ________ is an essential part of this process.
A) Testing
B) Trial-and-error
C) Experimenting
D) Modeling
Answer: D
28) The identification of organizational goals and objectives related to an issue of concern and determination of whether they are being met is the beginning of the ________ of decision making.
A) initial phase
B) intelligence phase
C) brainstorming phase
D) generation phase
Answer: B
29) Which of the following involves finding or developing and analyzing possible courses of action in a decision making phase?
A) Consultation phase
B) Communication phase
C) Intelligence phase
D) Design phase
Answer: D
30) A(n) ________ is a criterion that describes the acceptability of a solution approach. In a model, it is a result variable.
A) principle of choice
B) optimization variable
C) trade-off
D) worst-case criterion
Answer: A
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31) Which of the following describes normative models?
A) These models are based on anomalies in rational decision making.
B) They are models in which the chosen alternative is demonstrably the best of all possible alternatives.
C) They are models based on the phenomenon of preference reversal.
D) They lead to an approach known as suboptimization.
Answer: B
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32) Which of the following, by definition, requires a decision maker to consider the impact of each alternative course of action on the entire organization because a decision made in one area may have significant effects in other areas?
A) Satisfaction
B) Worst-case
C) Feasibility
D) Optimization
Answer: D
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33) "Thinking with your gut" is a heuristic approach to decision making that would work best for ________.
A) amateur chefs
B) payroll processors and accountants
C) experienced firefighters and military personnel on the battlefield
D) structured decision situations
Answer: C
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34) With ________, the performance of the system is checked for a given set of alternatives, rather than for all alternatives. Therefore, there is no guarantee that an alternative selected is optimal.
A) analytical analysis
B) descriptive analysis
C) optimization analysis
D) quantitative analysis
Answer: B
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35) The usual reasons for ________ are time pressures and recognition that the marginal benefit of a better solution is not worth the marginal cost to obtain it
A) satisficing
B) settling
C) compromising
D) rationalizing
Answer: A
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36) A ________ describes the decision and uncontrollable variables and parameters for a specific modeling situation.
A) statement
B) model
C) program
D) scenario
Answer: D
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37) Which of the following is a study of the effect of a change in one or more input variables on a proposed solution?
A) Sensitivity analysis
B) Boundary analysis
C) Fish bone analysis
D) Input-output analysis
Answer: A
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38) A ________ can help a decision maker sketch out the important qualitative factors and their causal relationships in a messy decision-making situation.
A) mathematical map
B) cognitive map
C) qualitative map
D) narrative map
Answer: B
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39) The ________ of a proposed solution to a problem is the initiation of a new order of things or the introduction of change.
A) method
B) implementation
C) approach
D) style
Answer: B
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40) The Museum of Natural History in Aarhus, Denmark uses ________ to collect detailed information about visitors' use of the exhibits to help determine visitors' behavior to identify high-demand exhibits.
A) group decision systems
B) algorithms
C) RFID
D) expert systems
Answer: C
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41) ________ is synonymous with the whole process of management.
Answer: Decision making
42) A ________ is a simplified representation or abstraction of reality.
Answer: model
43) ________ are the descriptive representations of decision-making situations that we form in our heads and think about.
Answer: Mental models
44) The ________ phase in decision making involves scanning the environment and collecting information.
Answer: intelligence
45) Problem ________ is the conceptualization of a problem in an attempt to place it in a definable category, possibly leading to a standard solution approach.
Answer: classification
46) The process of modeling is a combination of art and science. As an art, a level of creativity and finesse is required when determining what simplifying ________ are appropriate and helpful.
Answer: assumptions
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47) A ________ describes the alternatives a manager must choose among, e.g., like how many cars to deliver to a specific rental agency or how to advertise at specific times.
Answer: decision variable
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48) A ________ is a model that prescribes how a system should operate.
Answer: normative model
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49) ________ may also involve simply bounding the search for an optimum by considering fewer criteria or alternatives or by eliminating large portions of the problem from evaluation.
Answer: Suboptimization
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50) A ________ is extremely useful in DSS for investigating the consequences of various alternative courses of action under different configurations of inputs and processes.
Answer: descriptive model
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51) ________ is the imitation of reality and has been applied to many areas of decision making.
Answer: Simulation
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52) Another descriptive decision-making model is the use of ________ to describe a decision-making situation. It is extremely effective when a group is making a decision and can lead to a more common frame.
Answer: narratives
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53) ________ is a willingness to settle for a satisfactory solution that is, in effect, suboptimizing.
Answer: Satisficing
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54) Aside from estimating the potential utility or value of a particular decision's outcome, the best decision makers are capable of accurately estimating the ________ associated with the resultant outcomes resulting from making each decision.
Answer: risk
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55) A ________ asks a computer what the effect of changing some of the input data or parameters would be.
Answer: what-if analysis
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56) The model is the critical component in the decision-making process, but one may make a number of errors in its development and use. ________ the model before it is used is critical.
Answer: Validating
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57) A(n) ________ is a step-by-step search in which improvement is made at every step until the best solution is found.
Answer: algorithm
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58) ________ is the critical act of decision making when the actual decision and commitment to follow a certain course of action are made.
Answer: Choice
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59) A data warehouse can support the intelligence phase by continuously monitoring both internal and
external information, looking for early signs of problems and opportunities through a Web-based enterprise information portal called a(n) ________.
Answer: dashboard
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60) Much of the information used in seeking new opportunities is ________, or soft.
Answer: qualitative
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61) Discuss the importance of decision style.
Answer: Decision style is the manner in which decision makers think and react to problems. This includes their cognitive response, their values, beliefs, and perceptions. These factors can vary greatly amongst individuals; as a result decisions can vary greatly.
62) Describe the three classifications of models.
Answer:
• Iconic. An iconic model is a physical replica of a system, usually on a different scale.
• Analog. An analog model is more abstract than an iconic model. It is a model that behaves like a system but does not physically look like the system.
• Mathematical. The complexity of relationships in many organizational systems cannot be represented by icons or analogically because such representations would soon become cumbersome, and using them would be time-consuming. Therefore, more abstract models are described mathematically.
63) List five benefits of using models.
Answer:
• Model manipulation is easier than manipulating the real system.
• Models enable compression of time.
• The cost of model analysis is less than the cost of a similar experiment using the real system.
• The cost of making mistakes during the trial-and-error experiment is less using a model.
• Models enable managers to estimate the risk of their actions.
• Mathematical models enable analysis of a large number of possible solutions.
• Models enhance learning and training.
• Models are readily available over the Web.
• There are many Java applets that readily solve models.
64) Briefly describe Simon's four phases of decision making.
Answer:
• Intelligence phase. Reality is examined, and the problem is identified and defined.
• Design phase. A model that represents the system is constructed by making assumptions that simplify reality. The model is then validated, and criteria are determined for evaluation of the alternative courses of action that are identified.
• Choice phase. Select a proposed solution to the problem.
• Implementation phase. Successful implementation results in solving the real problem. Failure leads to a return to an earlier phase of the process.
65) Briefly describe the four steps in the intelligence phase of decision making.
Answer:
• Problem identification. The intelligence phase begins with the identification of organizational goals and objectives related to an issue of concern, and determination of whether they are being met.
• Problem classification. Problem classification is the conceptualization of a problem in an attempt to place it in a definable category.
• Problem decomposition. Many complex problems can be divided into subproblems. Solving the simpler subproblems may help in solving the complex problem.
• Problem ownership. A problem exists in an organization only if someone or some group takes on the responsibility of attacking it and if the organization has the ability to solve it.
66) Briefly describe problem decomposition and its benefits.
Answer: Many complex problems can be divided into subproblems. Solving the simpler subproblems may help in solving the complex problem. Also, seemingly poorly structured problems sometimes have highly structured subproblems. Just as a semistructured problem results when some phases of decision making are structured while other phases are unstructured, so when some subproblems of a decision making problem are structured with others unstructured, the problem itself is semistructured. Decomposition also facilitates communication among decision makers.
67) Describe the three assumptions of rational decision makers used in Normative decision theory.
Answer:
• Humans are economic beings whose objective is to maximize the attainment of goals; that is, the decision maker is rational. (More of a good thing [revenue, fun] is better than less; less of a bad thing [cost, pain] is better than more.)
• For a decision-making situation, all viable alternative courses of action and their consequences, or at least the probability and the values of the consequences, are known.
• Decision makers have an order or preference that enables them to rank the desirability of all consequences of the analysis (best to worst).
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68) Compare the normative and descriptive approaches to decision making.
Answer: Normative refers to models that tell you what you should do. These are prescriptive models that usually utilize optimization.
Descriptive models are those that tell you "what-if." These are usually simulation models.
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69) Discuss why scenarios play an important role in management support systems.
Answer:
• They help identify opportunities and problem areas.
• They provide flexibility in planning.
• They identify the leading edges of changes that management should monitor.
• They help validate major modeling assumptions.
• They allow the decision maker to explore the behavior of a system through a model.
• They help to check the sensitivity of proposed solutions to changes in the environment as described by the scenario.
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70) Describe 3 findings about decision making in the Digital Age.
Answer: More decisions are being made in less time.
Respondents are missing opportunities.
Many feel as if they are losing the race.
Many barriers to speed are human.
IT clearly has a widespread influence.
Sources of information are constantly changing.
Decision-making amnesia is rampant. Organizations are not good at preserving their decision-making experiences.
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